Hudian shares (002463) company comment: 19-year performance in line with expected profitability improved significantly

Hudian shares (002463) company comment: 19-year performance in line with expected profitability improved significantly

I. Overview of the event On February 27, the company released the 2019 annual results report: revenue 71.

30,000 yuan, an increase of 29 in ten years.

7%; net profit attributable to mother 12.

1 ppm, an increase of 111 in ten years.


Second, the analysis and judgment of performance are in line with expectations, and the profitability has been greatly improved. The company revealed in its 19-year performance forecast that net profit attributable 杭州桑拿 to mothers11.

500 million to 12.

50,000 yuan, an increase of 101 in ten years.

6% to 119.

13%, the actual performance is above the median performance forecast range.

Q4 single-quarter revenue of 21.

2 ppm, an increase of 29% per year and an increase of 12 from the previous month.

17%; Q4 is net profit of mother 3.

55 ppm, an increase of 89% in ten years; Q4 net margin was 16.

7%, an increase of 5 pct per year.

In 19, the company needs to make provision for asset impairment of about 9,817.

170,000 yuan, taking into account the hypertension will reduce the return to mother’s net profit 8307.

490,000 yuan, the actual performance has taken into account the above factors.

The performance growth growth mainly benefited from abundant orders for 5G, next-generation high-speed network equipment, servers, etc 北京夜網 .; continuous improvement in operations, and growth in gross profit margin.

08pct; scale effects continue to appear, and profitability continues to improve.

The production and operation conditions are good, and the resumption of work is in an orderly manner. The factory area of No. 1 Donglong Road, Yushan Town, Kunshan City has begun to resume work gradually from February 10. The subsidiary Huli Microelectronics has fully resumed production (there is no suspension during the Spring Festival).

The subsidiary Huangshi Hushi Electronics did not suspend production during the Spring Festival. Production was suspended on February 12 due to epidemic resistance, and work was gradually resumed on February 17.

Benefiting from 5G infrastructure, corporate communications orders are full, high-end products drive profitability, 5G products have grown in volume, and the proportion of revenue has continued to increase, which will benefit from 5G infrastructure trends, high-speed server and network equipment upgrades.

It is expected that the 5G-scale infrastructure will drive the high-speed board volume and price up. After the technical transformation of the Qingying Plant and the Huangshi No. 1 Plant, the high-end PCB output will be effectively increased, and the market share will be further increased.

At present, high gross profit margins of 14-38 layers of corporate communication boards and office industrial equipment boards account for a high proportion of revenue, and the revenue growth rate is fast, which effectively drives the overall profitability to improve.

Auto plates benefit from the ADAS trend, and the product structure continues to be optimized. Huangshi Hu Shi has been successfully put into production. Benefiting from ADAS and new energy vehicle policies, the company continues to increase high-margin mid-to-high-end auto plate investment and order introduction, and its product structure and production efficiency continue to improve.The profitability of auto plates has steadily increased.

In September 19, part of the production process of Huangshi No. 2 Plant has begun to test, and the 19Q4 Huangshi Hushi automobile plate production line has been put into operation smoothly.

Third, investment advice The company is a leading domestic telecommunications and automotive PCB supplier, which has long benefited from 5G infrastructure and automotive electronics trends.

It is expected that the EPS in 19/20/21 will be 0.



09 yuan, the corresponding PE is 40X / 31X / 26X.

Reference SW printed circuit board industry PE is estimated to be 48 times, maintaining the company “recommended” level.

4. Risk warnings: 1. The production capacity is less than expected; 2. The gross profit margin of the automobile board is gradually increasing; 3. 5G is gradually lower than expected.

SSIC (002912) 2018 Annual Report and 2019 First Quarterly Report Review: The rapid growth of network visualization, network content security, big data and other extended applications are worth looking forward to

SSIC (002912) 2018 Annual Report and 2019 First Quarterly Report Review: The rapid growth of network visualization, network content security, big data and other extended applications are worth looking forward to

Event: On the evening of April 19, 2019, the company released the 2018 annual report and the 2019 first quarter report.

The company achieved total operating income in 20186.

910,000 yuan, an increase of 38 in ten years.

85%; Realize net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies.

500,000 yuan, an increase of 54 in ten years.

73%; the company’s total operating income in Q1 2019 was 9,741.

740,000 yuan, an increase of 8 in ten years.

21%; net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was -621.

470,000 yuan, a decrease of 312 a year.


Investment suggestion: Benefit from the continuous increase of network data traffic, big data analysis and continuous growth of network security requirements and other factors and the company’s good results in product upgrade optimization and sales channel construction, the company’s 2018 performance maintained high growthTo achieve net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies.

50,000 yuan, an increase of 55% in ten years.

As a leading enterprise in the network visualization industry, the company has a rich product business layout, including broadband network products, mobile network products, network content security products, and big data operation products, covering effective network data extraction, data storage and calculation, data analysis and mining,Data application and display.

The income of broadband network products affected by various favorable factors maintained stable and rapid growth. At the end of 17, the total amount of China Telecom’s supporting engineering projects won the bid.

9.5 billion (unrecognized revenue in 2018) will also increase future achievements; in terms of mobile network products, there will be changes in the short term, and in the long term, benefiting from the continuous increase in penetration and innovative integration with extended application products, the future will remainWill maintain steady growth.

Network content security products and big data operation products have 南寧桑拿 mature hardware and technical advantages. They have been gradually developed internally and have begun to bear fruit, and there is huge room for future growth.

We expect the company to achieve operating income in 2019-2021.

2.1 billion, 15.

5 billion, 21.

2.6 billion, realizing net profit attributable to mothers2.

8 billion, 4.

07 billion, 5.

25 trillion, corresponding to 2 EPS.

62 yuan, 3.

81 yuan, 4.

92 yuan, with reference to the closing price on April 19, 2019, the corresponding PE is 37.

51 times, 25.

79 times, 19.

98 times, maintaining the “highly recommended” level.

Broadband network product revenue has grown steadily and the product structure has been continuously optimized: The company achieved operating income of 69,120 in 2018.

800,000 yuan, an increase of 38 over the same period last year.

85% is mainly due to the continuous increase in data traffic and good results in the construction of sales channels. At the same time, the company’s product upgrade and optimization projects have made progress in stages, and product competitiveness has been further improved, which has satisfied customers’ various business needs.

The company’s business structure has remained stable compared to the same period of the previous year, with big data operations and strong growth in network content security products.

Broadband network products, realized revenue in 20183.

810,000 yuan, an increase of 49 in ten years.

35%, accounting for 51% of revenue from 17 years.

27% to 55.

15%.Mobile network products to achieve revenue 2.

15 ppm, an increase of 15 in ten years.

88%, accounting for 37% of revenue from 17 years.

21% fell to 31.

06%, mainly due to the fluctuation of short-term demand for products.

Big data operation products have made breakthrough progress in industry applications, accumulated rich experience in data governance and knowledge maps, and obtained a certain scale of application in various industries at home and abroad. In 2018, they achieved operating income of 1,737.

30,000 yuan, an increase of 244% in ten years.

Network content security products have further enriched product features, achieving 5,436 in 2018.

40,000 yuan increased by 133% a year.

In addition, the company has also strategically entered the field of industrial Internet security, launched industrial Internet security products and solutions based on existing products and technology platforms, and achieved applications in related industries. It is expected that it will also contribute a certain amount of revenue in the future.

China Telecom’s supporting engineering projects are progressing in an orderly manner, and big data may open up growth space: The company won the bid for China Telecom’s supporting engineering projects at the end of 2017, with a project amount of 4.

95 trillion, as of the end of 2018, no revenue has been recognized yet.

With the orderly progress of the project, it will directly increase the performance in 2019, driving the rapid growth of network visualization product revenue.

In terms of big data operation products, the company has initially recognized the market competitiveness of big data platforms such as the audit all-in-one machine developed by the company and industry big data analysis products. It has achieved a certain scale of application in relevant government fields and has received widespread praise from users.

In response to the needs of the rapid development of big data in the public security industry, the comprehensive information collection and analysis system has been continuously optimized to achieve a wide range of applications across the country.

At the same time, major progress has been made in the application systems of relevant industries, and multiple projects have been successfully deployed, which has won praise from customers and opened up future growth space.

The customer structure was further optimized: from industry, government, and operator, the proportion of revenue contribution was 63% and 36% respectively; from the perspective of the top five customers, the total revenue contribution ratio was 40.

05%, a decrease of nearly 8 average values compared with the same period last year; from the regional average, the proportion of income in Northeast, North China, Southwest, Northwest and other regions has steadily increased.

With the steady progress of telecommunications projects and the continuous contribution of multiple types of customer revenue, the company is expected to continue to maintain a high-speed growth trend in the future in network visualization and extended applications.

Gross profit margin remained high, and research and development continued to remain high: The company’s overall gross profit margin in 2018 was 78.

67%, a decrease of 0 compared to last year.

36 pct, mainly due to the decline in gross profit of broadband network and mobile network products.

The gross profit margin of broadband products was 83.

57%, a decrease of 2 over the same period last year.

89 pct, still maintained a high level in general; mobile network products due to the decline in product demand and increased competition in the industry and other factors, the mobile network gross profit margin fell 7.

61 to 71.

79%, but gradually the products will be upgraded in the future and the overall coverage of the system will be upgraded, and the gross profit margin will rise.

In terms of period expenses, sales expense expenses23.

52%, a slight decrease compared with the same period last year, and basically maintained the same proportion change with the scale of operating income; the management expense ratio was 32.

23% (including R & D expenses), a decrease of 1 from the same period last year.

15 pct; R & D expenses reached 1 in 2018.

670,000 yuan, an increase of 40 over the same period.

66%, mainly due to the rapid growth of R & D personnel, the company’s R & D personnel increased from 446 in 17 to 638, and the growth of R & D personnel is the company’s breakthrough in the development of various products, which is conducive to the further promotion of future products;Cost Expense -3.

77%, a decrease of 3 from the same period last year.

62 pct, mainly due to the increase in interest income in the current period compared with the previous year.

The Q1 error in 2019 is a restructuring fluctuation, and the overall probability of high growth in 2019 is high: in the first quarter, the company achieved revenue of 9,741.

740,000 yuan, an increase of 8 in ten years.

21%; realized net profit attributable to mother -621.

470,000 yuan, a decrease of 312 a year.

57%.The temporary transition of Q1 in 2019 is a restructuring mutation. Revenue and profit contributions are mostly recognized in the second half.

The company’s final revenue mainly comes from broadband network products and mobile network products. The end users are mainly government agencies, telecommunications operators and enterprises.

As customers usually implement a budget management system and a centralized procurement system, the peak demand for the market mainly occurs in the second half of the year.

The company currently has sufficient orders in hand and the industry demand continues to grow steadily. The advance payment amount reached at the end of the first quarter.

56 ppm, which is expected to maintain high growth throughout 2019.

Risk reminder: the risk that the company’s supplementary order situation is less than expected; the risk of the growth rate of the network visualization industry falling short of expectations; the risk of the company’s product gross margin falling; the risk of the company’s new product research and development being less than expected;

AVIC Capital (600705): First coverage report: Military + financial scarce specimens benefit from military-civilian integration + industry-finance integration trust securities leases are improving

AVIC Capital (600705): First coverage report: Military + financial scarce specimens benefit from military-civilian integration + industry-finance integration trust securities leases are improving

AVIC Capital is the only financial holding listed company controlled by China Aviation Industry Corporation.

The company holds trust, lease, futures, securities, and finance company licenses through the “Integrated Finance” platform (AVIC Investment).

In addition, AVIC has established Beijing Rongfu Aviation Industry Fund, Huihua Fund, etc., and holds fund licenses.

At the same time, in order to improve the layout of the full financial license, he participated in the establishment of AMC (Chengdu Yihang Asset Management Co., Ltd.).

Under the industrial investment platform, the company invested in a series of high-quality development industry projects through AVIC Xinxing (established in 2012), AVIC Aviation Investment (established in 2013), and the Aviation Industry Fund, making full use of the strong military background, development, industrial resources andBrand advantages, closely surrounding the various industrial chain of the aviation industry, actively explore aviation industry investment, focus on the development of strategic emerging industries, and look for growth points outside the aviation industry.

The company finally perfected the full layout of financial licenses, and at the same time deeply integrated industrial industries and financial resources.

Industrial demand supports the growth of capital, 杭州夜網論壇 and support from shareholders also inputs abundant resources to finance; at the same time, a complete business license meets this capitalization demand of the industry, and capital business optimization can also feed back the healthy development of the industry.

“Military industry + finance” formed a good interactive cycle.

As a scarce A-share target of military industry + finance, the company will become the primary benefit target of military securitization and military-civilian integration.

In 2018, the company’s operating performance continued to grow.

The company’s net profit attributable to its mother was 31 in 2018.

66 trillion, +13 for ten years.

74%; 2012-2018 composite strength 27.


2018 weighted ROE12.

90% in December 2017.

A solid growth was achieved on the basis of 33%.

Leasing, trust and finance business are the top three major sources of income for the company.

In 2018, the lease, trust, finance, and securities accounted for 51 of the company’s revenue structure.

66%, 21.

59%, 16.

86%, 6.

09%; lease, trust, finance, and securities account for 31%, 35%, 20%, and 4% of the profit structure, and the contribution rate of trust to profits.

Among the business segments, trust companies have the largest gross profit margins and the strongest profitability.

AVIC Trust has enhanced its proactive management capabilities and driven its performance to increase, and is a major contributor to the Group’s profits.

Among the 68 trust companies, AVIC Trust has strong innovation and design capabilities. It has issued the first products of various trusts in the market. The business returns are good and ROE is at the leading level in the industry.

In terms of leasing companies, the background of aviation leasing + industrial integration has obvious advantages.

AVIC Securities plans to increase its capital, and the future is expected to improve.

In terms of industrial investment, the project reserves are abundant, and it is not ruled out that the exit can be achieved through capital markets such as the science and technology board, and the future will be rich.

Overall perspective: The company’s sustainable operating performance continues to grow.

The capital increase of trusts and leases has been completed, and the capital increase plan of securities has been formed, and the capital strength of each business has been further enhanced.

The profitability of the trust is at the forefront of the industry. Leasing has the absolute advantage of the aviation business. The securities business is expected to be optimistic. The financial company has strengthened capital management and its performance is optimistic.

In addition, the increase in shareholders’ holdings and the date of war investment highlights long-term optimistic expectations.

“Military + Finance” business synergy is good.

According to AVIC Capital’s profit realization in 2018 and the capital strength of each business line, we use segment estimates for the trust and PB valuation for the remaining businesses, with a corresponding target price of 8.

68 yuan, 49 compared with the current price.

14% increase, the first coverage “Buy” rating!

Risk Tips: Market and Operational Risks, Financial Risks, Management Risks

Guoxuan High-tech (002074): Overseas cooperation speeds up in the next city

Guoxuan High-tech (002074): Overseas cooperation speeds up in the next city

Event: Recently, the company announced that its wholly-owned subsidiary Hefei Guoxuan and India’s Tata AutoComp have completed the “Joint Venture Agreement”. The two parties plan to jointly invest in India to establish a joint venture company, mainly engaged in battery module, battery management system and other businesses.

Among them, Hefei Guoxuan invested 40 million Indian rupees (about 393 yuan) in cash.

760,000 yuan), will hold 40% equity.

This joint venture and cooperation will definitely provide important strategic opportunities for the company’s international market development and sustainable development.

Overseas support continues to make progress in the next city: domestic support, the company currently has JAC, BAIC New Energy, Zotye, Yutong Bus, SAIC, Zhongtong Bus, Ankai Bus and many other strategic cooperation customers.
In terms of overseas support, the company signed a procurement framework agreement with BOSCH, which will 西安耍耍網 provide automotive 12V lithium iron phosphate start-stop batteries for end users or throughout the world.

With this cooperation with Tata of India, the company’s gradual progress is further accelerated. The company is expected to transform into the resource force of Tata Group in the future and penetrate into the Indian market with promising new energy vehicles. If the cooperation is successfully implemented, it will significantly increase the company’s performance.

In fact, the company’s other overseas ternary battery projects are also actively promoted, and it is expected to achieve a breakthrough in 19Q3.

Full orders and full production and sales, 19 years is expected to grow to 10GWh: In 2019, the company’s supply models are expected to focus on the range of 300-400km, the product energy density is mainly concentrated 四川耍耍網 on 140-160Wh / kg.

According to GGII data, the company’s expansion volume reached zero in the first quarter.

6GWh, the installed capacity reached 0 in April.

28GWh, ranked third.

According to the company announcement, the company has negotiated supply strategies with long-term cooperative customers such as BAIC, JAC, Chery, and Zotye. The current orders are full, and the order is expected to be above 12GWh. The expected increase is expected to reach 10GWh (three yuan is expected to be around 1GWh).Expected results are expected.

Perfect industrial chain layout and smooth expansion of production capacity: The company actively lays out upstream resources, establishes a joint venture with MCC in Caofeidian, Tangshan, and establishes a stable supply relationship of cobalt and nickel raw materials. The company and Shanghai Electric jointly establish a company based on power lithium battery energy storage businessTo further expand the scope of business.

In 2018, the “Industrialization Project of 4GWh High Specific Energy Lithium Battery Industrialization Project” and “Nanjing Guoxuan Annual Production of 300 million Ah High Specific Energy Power Lithium Battery Industrialization Project” and other projects have been partially put into production in batches, and the production capacity was quickly obtainedfreed.

According to GGII data, the company’s capacity scale at the end of 2018 is 7-8GWh, and the effective capacity is expected to reach 14GWh in 2019, including 2GWh ternary capacity and 12GWh iron and lithium capacity.

Long-term planning is expected to reach 30GWh capacity by the end of 2020 and 50GWh capacity by 2022.

Investment advice: We expect the company’s revenue growth from 2019 to 2021 to be 127.

47%, 22.

89%, 28.

85%, net profit growth rate was 74.

47%, 24.

40%, 27.


Maintain the company’s buy-A investment rating, with a 6-month target price of 20.

00 yuan.

Risk warning: intensified product competition, new energy vehicle development is less than expected, and overseas cooperation progress is lower than expected

Joyson Electronics (600699): Leading intelligent driving to protect safe travel

Joyson Electronics (600699): Leading intelligent driving to protect safe travel

Powerful merger and acquisition gene assisted, Joyson went to the global parts giant. Both the internal and external decorative functional parts started. It directly merged and acquired the global parts breakdown of Purui, IMA, Quin, KSS, TS, Takada, and the revenue scale from 20101.

5 million to 561 in 2018.

800 million.

The company has formed four major business segments: active and passive safety, intelligent cockpit, BMS, interior and exterior decoration functions, high-quality track for card slots, and building a strong moat to participate in future competition.

The company has a rich product system, leading research and development capabilities, supporting Mercedes-Benz, BMW, Audi 南京夜網論壇 and other customers. Under the high-end and international two-wheel drive, the company is expected to achieve the goal of tens of billions of dollars in revenue in 2021 and rank among the global parts giants.

The combination of KSS + Takada strong and strong, both wins safety approaching the world’s first global automotive passive safety market has a high concentration, CR4 exceeds 80%, resulting in the top four global market shares are Autoliv (40%), Takata (20%)), ZF Trina (17%), and KSS (7%).

After the merger and integration of Takata, Joyson ‘s safety market share is nearly 30%, and the gap between it and the world ‘s first is further narrowed. The original Takata and KSS have collaborations with customers, R & D, and procurement. The integration performance is continuously released, helping the company ‘s automotive safety profitability to improve.

Joyson Safety strives to increase its market share from the current 30% to 35% within three to five years. As a new car safety giant, it proposes to challenge Ottolive’s absolute hegemony level.

HMI + smart car linkage + E-mobility good track, build a cloud of doors, win in the future. The company faces the trend of automotive intelligence, electrification industry, in-depth layout of HMI, smart driving, smart car linkage, BMS and other fields.Navigation systems, connected cars, V2X, ADAS, battery management systems, etc. have entered the supporting system of high-end customers such as Volkswagen, BMW, Audi, and Porsche, and until H1 2019, the company’s electronic seat bay and smart car linkage business totaled 4.2 billion元訂單,電動化 共獲得訂單131 ppm。
We expect that by 2020, the domestic automotive electronics market will exceed 900 billion U.S. dollars. As the company ‘s initial and most in-depth layout of automotive control electronics, the company will have a high-quality track and build a strong entry biology.Trillion market dividends.

Earnings forecast and investment recommendations We expect the company’s 2019-2021 earnings to be 0.

97 yuan, 1.

23 yuan, 1.

45 yuan.

Considering that the company’s market is stable and stable and its development prospects are great, it is given a price-earnings ratio of 20 times in 2020 and a reasonable target price of 24.

6 yuan, maintain “Buy” rating.

Risk warning: The global automotive industry is weaker than expected; the company’s automotive safety business integration is worse than expected; the company’s customer expansion and order acquisition are less than expected.

Shanxi Coking (600740) 2018 Annual Report Performance Comment: China Coal Huajin’s large investment income caused a 15% increase in profits

Shanxi Coking (600740) 2018 Annual Report Performance Comment: China Coal Huajin’s large investment income caused a 15% increase in profits

Long-term equity investment caused a sharp increase in the value of Shanxi Coking’s net profit by 1,567.

38% Shanxi Coking (600740) announced the 2018 annual report on the evening of the 15th, and the report stated that the company achieved operating income of 72.

29 ppm, an increase of 20 in ten years.

58%; Net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies15.

33 ppm, an increase of 1567 per year.

38%; deduct non-net profit 12.

0.94 million yuan, an increase of 1152 in ten years.

37%; Yield 1.

21 yuan, the expected average return on net assets is 21.


The company achieved operating income in the fourth quarter.

26 ppm, a ten-year increase of 8.

44%; net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company2.

450,000 yuan, an increase of 514 in ten years.


A cash dividend of 2 yuan (including tax) is to be distributed for every 10 shares.

China Coal Huajin’s equity investment thickened the company’s performance report at one time, and the company purchased a total of 394 raw coal.

For the first time 64, the purchase price was 1216.

43 yuan-1300.

16 yuan; coal tar 18.

Initially, the purchase price was 3065-4038 yuan;都市夜網 crude benzene 7.

16 For the first time, the purchase price is between 4294 yuan and 5592 yuan.

In terms of different products, the production of coke (wet basis) was 300.

66, +7.

38%, sales of coke 299.

68 digits, +5.

93%; production of methanol 19.

03,, +24.

54% sold methanol 19.

28 ounces.

Due to the company’s routine production shutdown and maintenance, the production of carbon black, tar, crude benzene and other products decreased.

Report that the core company produces carbon black 5.

57 baseline, -15.

48%, selling carbon black 5.

68 for the first time; processed anhydrous tar 25.

83 ,, -14.

33%; processed crude benzene 10.

34 ,, -5.48%.

The main products of the major companies reported rising and falling quality, with asphalt increasing by +4.

7%, industrial naphthalene +31.

15%, 南京桑拿網 carbon black +14.

49%, coking benzene-0.


Maintaining stable downstream demand is the main factor for the company’s operating income to maintain steady growth.

In addition, the company’s 18-year net profit surged 15 times each year, mainly because the company completed the acquisition of 49% equity of Shanxi Zhongmei Huajin Energy Co., Ltd. in 18 years, and realized investment income of 11 that year.

US $ 1.6 billion, significantly increasing the company’s performance. Excluding the large amount of non-operating income caused by China Coal Huajin’s equity investment income and adjustment of investment costs, the company still exceeded 80% of profit growth that year.

Reported that the company’s overall gross profit margin rose 2.

09pct to 11.

37%, the expense ratio increased by 1.

At 04pct, the net profit margin was significantly affected by the substantial returns brought by China Coal Huajin’s equity investment19.

26 points to 20.


The company’s acquisition of China Coal Huajin has significantly improved the company’s net profit level. Although the one-time shock effect dissipated in 19 years, there is still room for improvement in the long-term.

Investment Strategy Shanxi Coking, as the coke leader in Shanxi Province, has a complete coal coking industrial chain including coke, coal tar, benzene processing, and methanol.

The company has obvious geographical advantages. It is located in the main coking coal production area upstream, and has certain advantages in procurement. In the downstream Hebei steel province, the demand side has the advantage of near-water platforms.

With the recovery of downstream steel demand in the past two years, the price of coke has continued to rise. As a leader in the coke industry, the company has benefited significantly.

In the initial period, the company acquired 49% equity of China Coal Huajin, and the industrial chain extended upward. China Coal Huajin’s coking coal is of good quality and has a large profit space, which promotes the company’s profitability.

We are optimistic about the company as the leading part of the coke industry, high-quality coking coal assets in the future to improve the company’s profitability, and as the major state-owned enterprises in Shanxi Province in the future state reform expectations, we recommend that we pay attention.

Risk warning: policy risks, coal prices fall faster than expected

China Public Education (002607) 2019 Annual Results Preview Comment: Triple Growth Moat Continues to Assist in Performance Growth

China Public Education (002607) 2019 Annual Results Preview Comment: Triple Growth Moat Continues to Assist in Performance Growth

Description of the event Zhong Gong Education released the 2019 annual performance forecast to achieve net profit attributable to mothers.

20,000 yuan?

2 trillion, with an increase of 49.


86%, the growth rate of 53.


In the fourth quarter alone, net profit attributable to mothers was 7.

60,000 yuan?

600 million, an increase of 24.


80%, growth center 32.


Event commentary In terms of traditional main business, recruiting demand rebounded, the company combined teaching and research advantages, national channel layout advantages and efficient management advantages, responded to demand rebounds, achieved revenue, performance growth, and consolidated the industry’s leading scale.

Taking the teacher qualification exam as an example, the number of enrolled students in 2019 is 8.8 million, an increase of 35%. Among them, the number of enrollments in the first half of 2019 is 2.9 million, an increase of 42%, and the number of enrollments in the second half of 2019 is 5.9 million, an increase of 32%.

New business such as postgraduate entrance examination and IT development has progressed smoothly. The company actively invests in development, teacher recruitment and training, and construction of a one-stop learning base to cultivate new performance growth points for the company.

The postgraduate entrance enthusiasm continues, with 3.4 million applicants for postgraduate entrance examinations in 2019, an increase of 17%, and a record high in nearly 10 years.

Since 2019, the company has made larger-scale investments in new track-level strategic categories such as postgraduate research and IT, including research and development and the recruitment of teachers.

In terms of channels, while the directly operated stores are sinking, they are actively exploring the base model.

The Air Force, three quarterly reports show that the Zhonggong Group and its wholly-owned subsidiary Beijing Zhonggong on September 27, 2019 at a total price of 2.

2.8 billion successfully bid for 1,321 acres of land and ground objects in Jiyang County, Jinan City, Shandong Province, of which 1221 acres shot by Beijing Zhonggong will be used for the construction of vocational education comprehensive facilities such as one-stop learning bases, and 100 acres of Zhonggong Group will be used to build ZhonggongBooks intelligent warehouse headquarters.

Looking forward to 2020, the unified recruitment of civil servants and public institutions will grow steadily. In 2020, the number of recruits for the national examination will increase by 66% to 2.

40,000, with 143 reviewers.

70,000, the average competition ratio is 60: 1; the teacher sequence will maintain a rapid growth, and sinking and decentralized examination recruitment 深圳桑拿網 such as grassroots public services will gradually become a force for the development of the recruitment training market.

Zhonggong Education has been deeply cultivating the industry for more than 20 years, grasping the characteristics of decentralized industry needs, practicing internal skills, building a moat for research and development, channels and management, and promoting the sustainable high growth of the company’s performance.

It is estimated that the 2020-2021 results will be 2.5 billion and 3.4 billion, respectively, corresponding to the current expected PE of 43 and 32 times, maintain the buy rating.

Risk Warning: 1.

Major changes have taken place in vocational education and training industry policies; 2.

The business development and the development of the base model fell short of 天津夜網 expectations.

Fu Lichun-Fed rate cut inside and outside is expected to be placed once in 12 months

Fu Lichun: Inside and outside the Fed rate cut is expected to be placed once in 12 months

Northeast Securities Research Director Fu Lichun voted in July at the Fed’s interest rate meeting to decide: (1) Cut the federal funds rate by 25bp to the 杭州桑拿網 target range 2.

00% -2.

25%; (2) Change the general and excess reserve interest rates from 2.

35% down to 2.

10%; (3) At the same time announced that it will end the contraction in August.

Fed Chairman Powell hinted that the Fed’s rate cut is not necessarily the beginning of the easing cycle.

  The interest rate cut in July was in line with expectations, the rate of interest rate cut was slightly lower than expected, and the direction of interest rate cut exceeded expectations.

The market previously expected the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in July by nearly 100%, and this rate cut was in line with expectations.

The magnitude of this rate cut and potential future rate cuts is slightly lower than the expectation of 25-50 basis points.

Regarding the direction of future interest rates, the Fed’s statement was ambiguous and exceeded market expectations.

  During this time, major global economies have cut interest rates one after another, and a wave of interest rate cuts seems to be taking shape.

According to the impact of global political and economic conditions on the economic outlook and the speed of growth, and also on the 南京桑拿論壇 basis of independence considerations, the Fed’s interest rate cuts are not smooth. Although a 25bp interest rate cut is expected in December, market expectations may be more important.

A new round of asset bubbles seems to be hitting at the same time.

  Will China follow the rate cut?

The interest rate corridor in the open market has actually been incorporated into the role of the benchmark interest rate.

It may be more important to rationalize the channel mechanism for bank deposit and loan interest rates to regulate the real economy.

After all, currency cannot be depreciated.

Huaxia Happiness (600340): A New Year for the Development of China Happiness

Huaxia Happiness (600340): A New Year for the Development of China Happiness

Core point of view: The performance commitment is completed, and the land revenue and profit contribution ability has been improved for 18 years. Huaxia Happiness’s operating income has reached 838 million US dollars, an annual increase of 40.

5%, attributable net profit of 117.

4.6 billion, an annual increase of 33.

8%, fulfilled performance commitment.

The increase in income was mainly due to the increase in real estate income, with settlement of 51.5 billion in 18 years, an annual increase of 78.

2%, settlement gross margin rose by 7.

5 units.

The profit rate of industrial services has declined, and the scale of first-level investment returns has remained basically stable.

The proportion of business outside Beijing has increased in an all-round way, and investment in industrial new cities has converged to achieve sales of 1,627 in 18 years.

6 ppm, an increase of 6 in ten years.

9%, of which real estate sales amounted to 131.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.

7%, general sales area of 1502, average price dropped to 8816 yuan / square meter, the proportion of sales area outside Beijing increased to 52%, of which Zhengzhou Central has performed extremely well.

During the year, the company’s industrial 都市夜網 new city business investment has significantly decreased, with the newly-added inventory of US $ 24.7 billion, a continuous decline of 70%, and the expansion of investment and operating cash scales down19.


Ping An’s shareholding and direct financing were smooth. Off-balance sheet financing was included in Ping An of China in 18 years and became the second largest shareholder of China Happiness with a total share capital of 25.


Ping An’s shareholding has improved the company’s direct financing and management capabilities. New direct financing increased by US $ 31 billion during the year, an annual increase of 66%.

Former China Resources Land Wu Xiangdong, Yu Jian became the company’s co-chairman and general manager.

The company’s EPS is expected to be 4 in 19 and 20 respectively.

93, 6.

03無錫桑拿網 yuan, maintain “Buy” rating Huaxia Happiness Industrial New City model copyright must be estimated to have an advantage of 11 to 16 years, the company’s average PEforward level is 10.

91x, in 2017, the Beijing area implemented a very strict purchase restriction policy. The company’s main layout of park sales was hindered, and the average PE was estimated to fall back to 7.

5 times.

A 19-year reasonable value grants 7 for proof of annual performance.

5x estimate, the reasonable price is 36.

99 yuan / share.

The risk reminder boom continues to decline, and sales rebates in purchase-restricted areas are not increased, affecting the company’s subsequent performance.

Jinfa Technology (600143) Annual Report Comments: Annual Report Exceeds Expectations 2019Q1 Cost Pressure Improves and Mitigates

Jinfa Technology (600143) Annual Report Comments: Annual Report Exceeds Expectations 2019Q1 Cost Pressure Improves and Mitigates
The annual report performance was lower than expected. Net profit in the first quarter of 2019 exceeded the increase by 21%. Jinfa Technology released the 2018 annual report, and the company achieved revenue of 253.2 trillion, an increase of 9 in ten years.4%, net profit 6.2.4 billion (net of non-net profit 3).31 ‰), an increase of 13.9% (after deducting non-depreciation, increase by 12.0%), lower than market expectations.Follow 27.1.7 billion of the latest equity calculation, the corresponding EPS is 0.23 yuan.Q4 achieved revenue of 67.700 million, an increase of 3 in ten years.3%, net profit -0.3 billion (2017Q4 was 0.9 billion), it 無錫夜網 is planned to pay 1 yuan (including tax) for every 10 shares.The company also announced that it achieved revenue of 59 in Q1 2019.0 million yuan, an increase of 6.5%, net profit 2.25 trillion, an increase of 21 a year.2%.We expect the company’s EPS for 2019-2021 to be 0.33/0.41/0.50 yuan, maintain “Buy” rating. The rise in volume and price led to dynamic performance growth, and asset impairment losses dragged down Q4 performance in 2018.1 for the first time, higher than the added value 3.3%, of which 134 were sales of modified plastics.6 Initially, the average sales price rose by 6% to 1.330,000 yuan / ton; sales of fully biodegradable plastics / special engineering plastics / environmental protection and high performance recycled plastics increased by 91% / 61% / 69% to 2 respectively.6/0.8/10.8In the early stage, the average 南京夜網論壇 sales price changed by 2% /-3% / 12% every year, driving the company’s long-term performance growth.The company’s comprehensive gross profit margin for 2018 was 13.5%, a slight decrease of 0 previously.1pct, because the main raw material substitution system resin / engineering resin 18Q4 purchase average price increased by 14% / 14% from Q3, Q4 company’s gross profit decreased / decreased by 0 respectively.9pct / 0.6pct to 12.7%.In addition, the company accrued zero asset impairment losses in Q4.60 ppm (mainly bad debt losses), resulting in a single quarter of expected drag on performance. The cost rate during 2018 was generally stable.4%, basically flat for one year.Among them, the sales expense rate drops by 0 every year.4pct to 2.6%, the financial expense rate rose by 0 per second.5 points to 1.9%, mainly due to increased interest expenses and exchange losses.In addition, the company realized non-recurring benefits2.930,000 yuan, mainly for various government subsidies (3.4 billion). The cost pressure has eased, and Q1 2019 results have increased. In the first quarter of 2019, the company’s sales of modified plastics / fully biodegradable plastics / environmentally friendly and efficient recycled plastics increased by 3% / 48% / 27% to 29.3/0.95/2.With a budget of 91, the average sales price changes by -6% /-1% / 0% each year, and the company’s revenue slightly increases by 7% to $ 5.9 billion.Raw material substitution resins / polystyrene resins / engineering resins Q1 average purchase prices fell by 3% / 15% / 25%, the company’s cost pressure eased, and the overall gross profit rate fell by 0.4 points to 15.0%. The international layout is accelerating, and new material products are expected to gradually increase the company’s overseas business layout. The main structure of the new plant of the Indian blonde Pune base has been completed and is expected to be put into use in 2019H1.In terms of projects under construction, the company expects to produce 1 ton of semi-aromatic polyamide projects per year, and 3,000 tons of thermotropic liquid crystal polymer projects will be put into production in H1 in 2019. We expect that the subsequent volume of related products is expected to drive the company’s performance to continue to improve. Maintaining the “Buy” rating. Considering that the demand for automotive and other terminal equipment is weak and cost-side pressure is still alive, we lower the company’s 2019-2020 net profit forecast to 9.0/11.2 ppm (original value 10).5/13.100 million), with a net profit forecast of 13 in 2021.700 million, EPS is 0.33/0.41/0.50 yuan, the combined level of comparable companies (average 21 times PE in 2019), giving the company 21-24 times PE in 2019, corresponding to a target price of 6.93-7.92 yuan (original value 6).63-7.80 yuan), maintain “Buy” rating. Risk warning: New business development is less than expected; downstream demand expansion; raw material price risk.