Hengli Petrochemical (600346): Cash flow continues to improve, and PTA and ethylene projects continue to grow rapidly

Hengli Petrochemical (600346): Cash flow continues to improve, and PTA and ethylene projects continue to grow rapidly

Event: The company released the third quarter report of 2019, and achieved operating income of 763 in the first three quarters.

29 trillion, +74 for ten years.

14%; net profit attributable to mother 68.

1.7 billion, +86 a year.


Among them, Q3 2019 single quarter realized operating income of 339.

96 trillion, ten years +95.

61%, +24.

62%; net profit attributable to mother 27.

96 trillion, ten years +57.

96%, compared to -20.


EPS0 for the first three quarters.

98 yuan.

  Main points: 1.

The large-scale refining and chemical project was put into operation, and the cash flow improved significantly. On May 17, 2019, the company’s 2000 annual budget / year large-scale refining and chemical project of the company was formally put into full production. It has now been consolidated and the company’s fixed assets have risen to 82 billion yuan.

The output and sales volume of the project were 479 for chemicals.

3 Announcements / 478.

41 average, refined oil 171.

91 Statutory / 170.

79 ounces.

  Taking the total product volume of 378 in the third quarter to exclude measurement (excluding PX and acetic acid for own use), the Q3 of this project is running at full capacity in a single quarter.

For Q1-Q3 2019, the company’s net cash flows from operating activities were -38.

05 billion, 161.

8 billion, 142.

4.8 billion.

It can be seen that after the refining and petrochemical projects are put into production, the company’s cash flow has improved significantly.

However, due to the company’s multiple projects under construction, it is still in a period of intensive capital expenditure and the asset-liability ratio is as high as 80.


  In the first three quarters of 2019, the company reorganized PTA, and the production and sales of polyester business were basically stable. Among them, polyester sales increased and PTA decreased.

In terms of price, polyester filament (-9% for civilian use and -17 for industry).

63%), polyester chips (-10.

9%), engineering plastics and polyester film (-15.

09%), PTA (-1.

31%) The average price of products shifted to varying degrees.

At present, the market is too pessimistic about downstream demand, but according to our calculations, from January to August 2019, upstream polyester filaments gradually gained 1996 instead of +13.

5%; gradually export 179.

74 Initially, at least +15.3%; gradually net exports 172.

660,000, ten years +17.

03%; apparent consumption is 1824 per year, an increase of 13 per year.



The PTA and ethylene projects are expected to be put into production at the end of 19 and early 20s. (1) The 重慶耍耍網 company is constructing a 150-ton / year ethylene project, including a 150-ton ethylene unit and supporting 12 sets of chemical units, to further increase the added value of products and the competitiveness of refining.

The project is expected to be delivered in the fourth quarter of 2019, and will be fully operational at the end of 2019 or early 2020.

  According to the project feasibility study report, after the project is fully operational, it is expected to achieve annual sales income of 24.3 billion yuan and an average annual net profit of approximately 4.3 billion yuan.

(2) The 250 budget / year PTA-4 project is under construction and is expected to be commissioned for production in the fourth quarter of 2019.

According to the feasibility study report, after the project has reached production and efficiency, it is estimated that the average annual sales income will be 112.573 million yuan and the annual average total profit will be 906.98 million yuan.

At the same time, there are 250 PTTA-5 projects expected to be completed in mid-2020, when the company’s total PTA production capacity will reach 1160 years / year.

(3) A 135-ton high-performance multi-functional high-quality new textile material project is under construction.

It is estimated that the annual sales income is expected to be 156 after the project is fully in production.

60,000 yuan (including tax), the total annual profit is 2,661.8 million yuan, and the profit after tax is 1,999.63 million yuan.


Earnings forecast and rating We estimate that the company’s net profit attributable to its parent for 2019-2021 will be 91.

8.3 billion, 117.

48 ppm and 145.

490,000 yuan, corresponding to EPS 1.

30 yuan, 1.

67 yuan and 2.

07 yuan, PE 12.

5X, 9.

8X and 7.


Considering that the company’s large-scale refining and chemical projects are in production and entering the harvesting period, at the same time, it is accelerating the improvement of the integrated development of the entire industrial chain and increasing the added value.

  Risk warning: macroeconomic fluctuations, rising product prices, and project commissioning progress is less than expected.

Turkey, Turkey kill 22 Turkish soldiers in air raid on Syrian Idlib territory

Turkey, Turkey kill 22 Turkish soldiers in air raid on Syrian Idlib territory
Xinhua News Agency, Ankara, February 27 (Reporter Zheng Siyuan) is talking with the Turkish side on the 27th of the Russian flag 南京夜生活網 of Turkey on the antiques of the Idlib province in northwestern Syria.On the same day, Turkish troops were attacked by Syrian government forces in Idlib, killing 22 Turkish soldiers.  It is reported that Turkish news agency Anadolu reported that Ohio, led by Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Vershinin, entered the Turkish capital Ankara on the 26th to hold antique talks with Turkey on the issue of Syria.This is the second time that the Russian side has sent to Turkey this month to carry out the Idlib issue.  The report quoted Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs as saying that Turkish Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Cedat Ernar and others held talks with Russia.The Turkish side stated that both parties to the conflict in the region should immediately cease fire and implement the agreement signed by the Turkish and Russian sides in Sochi in September 2018 to protect civilians from causing disasters and avoid triggering large-scale refugee flows.  Russian Foreign Minister Zaharova said at a briefing on the Russian Foreign Ministry on the 27th that the Russian President is conducting an Ankara talk with Turkey, covering all issues related to the normalization of the situation in Syria’s Idlib.She said that this round of carbonization could last for many days.The Russian side believes that one of the nature of the escalation in Syria’s domestic tension is that Turkey has not completed the agreement reached in September 2018 by Russia and Turkey to replace it.  Turkish media reported on the 27th that Turkish troops were attacked by government forces in Idlib province on the same day, killing 22 Turkish soldiers and injuring many others.  According to Russian media reports, Syrian opposition forces launched an attack on Syrian government forces in Sarakib, Idlib province on the 27th with the support of Turkish troops.The Turkish army also fired portable anti-aircraft missiles against the armed Russian fighter planes that bombed the opposition, but the Russian fighter planes resolved the attack.  The Turkish Ministry of Defence issued a statement on the 27th, saying that Turkish Defense Minister Akar had a phone conversation with US Secretary of Defense Esper on the same day to exchange views on finding a solution to the Idlib issue and the U.S. and regional defense issues.  Syria’s Idlib province, bordering Turkey, is the last major area of internal control of opposition armed and extremist groups in Syria.Syrian government forces have been hoping to recapture this 佛山桑拿網 area.In September 2018, Russian President Putin and Turkish President Erdogan met in Sochi, Russia, and the two sides decided to establish a demilitarized zone between Syrian government forces and opposition armed forces in Idlib province.According to the agreement, Turkey has established 12 observation points in Idlib in the name of monitoring the ceasefire.Recently, the Syrian government army and the Turkish army broke out in Idlib. Both sides suffered casualties in the exchange of fire.The Russian army also participated in the strike against militants in the region degraded in the Idlib conflict.(Participating reporter: Liu Yang)

Hongfa shares (600885) quarterly report comments: performance basically in line with expectations and wait for industry demand to recover

Hongfa shares (600885) quarterly report comments: performance basically in line with expectations and wait for industry demand to recover

Key points of investment: The company released the third quarter report of 2019, and achieved operating income of 51 in the first three quarters.

48 ppm, an increase of 1 per year.

87%; realize net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies.

$ 5.6 billion, a five-year average of 5.

54%; Realize non-recurring net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies5.

$ 26 trillion, an average of 4 per year.


The company’s performance basically met expectations.

Ping An’s point of view: The performance is basically in line with expectations, and the leading addition is still solid: the company achieved operating income of 51 in the first three quarters.

48 ppm, an increase of 1 per year.

87%; realized net profit attributable to mother 5.

56 ‰, an average of 5 in ten years.

54%; Realize non-recurring net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies5.

26 ppm, 10-year average4.


The company achieved operating income of 17 in 3Q19.

41 ppm, a 10-year increase2.

54%; net profit attributable to mothers2.

10,000 yuan, a ten-year average of 9.


Affected by weaker demand from home appliances, automobiles and other industries, the company’s performance declined slightly; in 18 years, the company’s relay business has a global market share of more than 14%, which has surpassed Omron’s ranking, and the company’s continuous efforts in the automotive, signal relay and other fieldsTherefore, the market share strives to continue to increase.

Smart meter replacement continued to increase volume, and promoted the rapid growth of the power relay business: starting in the second half of 18, domestic smart meters have gradually entered the tide of replacement, and the two batches of smart meters in the State Grid in 19 years were 3816/3564 million, gradually reducing.Up 39.


In the field of power relays, the company’s global market share has increased by 53% in the past 18 years, and the number of replacements in the first half of the year was about 7.

500 million US dollars, an increase of about 23% a year.

It is expected that the company’s share will increase in the European and American markets and the rapid growth of demand in Southeast Asia and other regions, as well as the expansion of the continuous volume of internal smart meter retrofitting. The company’s power relay business will help maintain a rapid growth rate.

The household appliances and automotive relay businesses are affected by the industry and are expected to improve ahead of time: According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the volume growth rate of air conditioners / household refrigerators / household washing machines in the first three quarters of 19 was 6 respectively.

4% / 4.

3% / 7.

At 5%, the output of air conditioners and refrigerators in September exceeded the growth rate in a single month and has slightly improved.

We expect that the reorganized real estate will enter the completion cycle, and the demand for home appliances is expected to gradually recover, driving the recovery of the company’s general relay business.

The extent to which the automotive relay business is affected by the expansion of the domestic automobile market. The domestic automobile output in the first three quarters of 19 years was 18.09 million units, which gradually exceeded 12%, and the change was gradually narrowing.

c18 The company ‘s automotive relay business has a global market share of 8%, and Panasonic ‘s 22% market share has room for replacement. At present, the company is advancing the development of new customers such as Mercedes-Benz. It is expected that the domestic automotive market will gradually adjust to the end and the company’s market share will continue.Ascension is expected to return to the growth track in 20 years.

The high-voltage DC and low-voltage electrical appliances business is progressing smoothly and has become an important growth point for the company: the company currently has 8 high-voltage DC relay production lines with an annual production capacity of 6 million, and is expected to double its production capacity in 20 years;Shangshang is at the leading level. In addition to supplying to domestic automakers such as BAIC and BYD, it has become the main supplier of the Volkswagen MEB platform and entered the supply chain of Mercedes-Benz and Tesla.

As the development of new energy models for joint venture car companies accelerates, the high-voltage DC relay business is expected to maintain rapid growth.

The company’s low-voltage electrical appliance business has a good momentum of development. In the past two years, it has gradually improved in product categories, supply chains and manufacturing equipment. Currently, it mainly supplies customers in the overseas power industry.Positioning brand image.

It is expected that through the completion of the company’s low-voltage electrical appliance business, the shortcomings in the product and marketing end will usher in a rapid volume phase.

Investment suggestion: The company has created a vertically integrated product R & D and production model by covering the upstream of the industrial chain, building the company’s core competitiveness, and transforming it into a company’s continuous expansion and complementary benefits.The rate will continue to increase. The company’s general purpose, automotive relay business is expected to resume in 20 years, power relays, high-voltage DC relays and other businesses to maintain rapid growth.

We maintain our forecast for the company’s EPS for 19/20/21 to be 1.



51 yuan, corresponding to PE on October 30 is 24.



8. Maintain the “Recommended” level.

Risk Warning: 1.

If the policy expands the real estate industry beyond expectations, resulting in faster growth in completed areas, it will reduce the demand for the home appliance industry, so the company’s general relay business is adversely affected.


If foreign investors increase investment in the relay industry again, it will increase the degree of competition in the relay industry and affect the company’s gross profit margin.


If the sales of new energy vehicles decline, it will affect the company’s high-voltage DC relay business revenue growth.